Thursday, April 17, 2014

Sottish Independence

I have been wondering about which political party will be in power after Scotland becomes independent. Now I do not like the SNP,never have done. I have always been an old style Liberal, not this coalition Government type, but the old one of Jo Grimmond,Paddy Ashdown and David Steele. That being said they never won and the new one is in coalition!
Getting back to Scotland. In the 2011 Election the SNP got 47 seats, Labour 46  Conservatives 17 and Liberal Democrats 16 in the Scottish Puzzle Palace. Now as you can see, if only one seat changes, in each of the duets, then Labour is top and the Liberal Democrats are third.  What a cozy coalition that would be" Personally, I think this will actually happen. Of the four parties the Conservatives will suffer the highest drop, as they are disliked in Scotland. In the London Parliament,at present, there is only one Conservative MP for Scotland.
So let's suppose that the Conservatives lose 7 seats, where would they go?  Well not Labour,for sure.Probably 4 to SNP and 3 to Liberals. So the new look would be 51 46 10 and 19 assuming there were no other changes. However, the SP have been called the tartan tories (conservatives) for years now. Scotland has always been a Labour heartland due to mining, heavy engineering and shipbuilding. Although these industries are all but finished the people and their families are still here and they blame everyone except Labour!!
There has been a huge increase in SNP voting, which I think is solely over the independence issue. Labour voters have moved to the SNP as they have nobody, in London, to hold them back. Whereas the other three parties follow the London tune.
So after Independence they will jump back, as the SNP have no form in leading a country but Labour has done. So if the SNP lose 6 seats going back to Labour it looks like this..........

SNP 45  Labour  52  Conservatives 10 and Lib Dems 19

An SNP / Conservative alliance would be outdone by a Labour/Libdem one and the Lib dems have tasted power. Anyway up, Labour will be in power or in a coalition with the LibDems  and they will have done none of the work!!!  I think that people have seen the Uk coalition as a good thing. The Liberals reigning in  the excesses of the Conservatives and getting the odd reward of one of their policies getting through and seats at the high table. They may well consider that coalitions are the way ahead and try one in Scotland with Labour/LibDems.

1 comment:

Mudricky said...

I think if we get Independence that the first fully elected Scot Govt. will be Labour with SNP in opp.

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